According to the latest survey, the price of power management IC (PMIC Chip) is still on the rise so far due to a shortage of materials due to insufficient semiconductor supply. The average selling price (ASP) of power ICs in the first half of 2022 is expected to rise by nearly 10%, a record high in six years.
From the perspective of product structure, continuous demand in consumer electronics, telecommunications, industrial control systems, automotive terminals and other fields and product innovation driven by industrial transformation will drive the global market's demand for PMICs to grow substantially. The biggest application of PMIC is consumer electronics. Recently, there is a strong demand for laptops, Chromebooks, smart phones and TVs.
At the same time, the motivation to replenish a few products with simple structures, such as low-dropout regulators (LDO), has also experienced a real slowdown. However, due to the structural growth of electronic products' demand for power ICs, some models are still out of stock.
In addition, the recovery of the automotive market and the rapid growth of electric vehicles, automotive electronics and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have increased the demand for power control and management and charging technologies. In addition, automotive ICs need to pass multiple inspections, and must ensure consistency and zero failure rate.
However, due to factors such as full-load production and shortage of raw materials, PMIC suppliers are currently announcing longer delivery times. The consumer electronics IC delivery time has increased to 12 to 26 weeks, and the automotive IC delivery time has reached 40 to 52 weeks. Orders for certain exclusive production models have been suspended.
Therefore, the observer organization predicts that due to the overall capacity shortage, the market demand for power ICs will remain strong in the fourth quarter of 21. Under the leadership of some head manufacturers, its pricing will remain high. Although affected by the epidemic, it is difficult to increase the production capacity of 8-inch wafers, but Texas Instruments' new wafer fab RFAB2 will start mass production in 2H22. In addition, because the foundry plans to advance the manufacturing of some 8-inch wafer power ICs to 12 inches, there is a high possibility of a shortage of power ICs. However, we still need to pay close attention to changes in market supply in the future.
Looking at the overall situation of the global semiconductor market, IC Insights recently issued a report saying that the growth rate of the IC market in 2021 is expected to be 26%, the highest growth rate since 2010.
The above picture is the 1Q/4Q semiconductor market indicator developed before 1997. This indicator is only for the direction of the market and is recorded as a "directional indicator", because this indicator does not directly predict the final annual growth value in a given year, but focuses more on it. Describe the expected direction and intensity of the IC market growth rate between the years.
The principle of this indicator is that when the 1Q/4Q performance of a certain year is better than the previous year, the annual growth rate of that year can be expected to be better than the previous year. When this year's 1Q/4Q performance is worse than the previous year, the situation is usually the opposite. The reason why the model can well reflect the direction of the IC industry's annual growth rate lies in the seasonality of the semiconductor market itself. The performance of the initial quarter is used to establish a "benchmark" to see the growth changes in the future quarters.
Generally speaking, when the performance of 1Q/4Q in a certain year is better than the result of 1Q/4Q of the previous year, the annual growth rate of that year can be expected to be better than that of the previous year. When this year's 1Q/4Q performance is worse than the previous year, the situation is usually the opposite.
For example, in 2017 1Q/4Q growth rate was 0%, IC market annual growth rate was 25%, and 2011 1Q/4Q growth rate was 1%, but the annual IC market growth rate was only 1%. The difference is that 1Q/4Q changes to Compared with the changes in 1Q/4Q last year.
After excluding the two years of severe decline in the IC industry in 1985 and 2001, IC Insights believes that the 1Q/4Q month-on-month indicator shows that the market is developing in a better direction and intensity in the coming years.
From 1984 to 2020, the average seasonality of this indicator fell to 2% month-on-month. In the first quarter of 2020, the market was down 3% from the fourth quarter of 2019, which was slightly lower than the historical average. From the fourth quarter of 20 to the first quarter of 21, the market has grown by 3%, which is much higher than the -3% of the interval from the fourth quarter of 19 to the first quarter of 20.
Therefore, ICInsights believes that the annual growth rate forecast (26%) of the IC market in 2021 may be much higher than the 13% growth in 2020. On the contrary, due to the performance from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021, it is expected to drop by 3%. The current indicator shows that the growth of the global semiconductor market in 2022 will be much lower than in 2021 (11% in 2022 and 26% in 2021).
If 1Q22/4Q21 IC market growth unexpectedly rises to -3%, the current forecast for next year's growth rate of 11% may need to be revised up.